2026 Market Outlook: What Policy-Driven Markets Mean for the Economy, Stocks, and Bonds

In this episode, Brian and Ryan break down the LPL Research 2026 Outlook and translate Wall Street research into plain-English takeaways for investors.

The big theme for 2026: markets are being driven less by traditional fundamentals and more by policy decisions, momentum, and investor behavior. Brian and Ryan discuss what that means for the economy, stock market expectations, and fixed income—and how investors should think about positioning portfolios heading into the year.

Rather than reacting to headlines, this conversation focuses on staying disciplined, patient, and aligned with long-term goals in what is likely to be a more volatile, policy-sensitive market environment.

The Economy: Slower First, Stronger Later

• Expectations for a modest economic slowdown early in 2026
• Why AI investment and fiscal spending may help prevent a recession
• Cooling labor markets, easing inflation pressures, and what that means for Federal Reserve policy
• Why rate cuts are expected to be gradual, not aggressive  

Stocks: Bull Market, But With More Bumps

• Why the bull market may extend into 2026—but with more tempered gains
• Elevated valuations and the likelihood of increased volatility in a mid-cycle year
• The role of AI enthusiasm in supporting equity markets
• Why patience and selective opportunities matter more than chasing headlines
• LPL Research’s S&P 500 fair value range of 7,300–7,400 for 2026  

Bonds and Cash: Income Over Price Appreciation

• Why bonds are again offering meaningful income opportunities
• Expectations for 10-year Treasury yields in the 3.75%–4.25% range
• Why returns on cash are likely to decline as rates fall
• The case for high-quality, intermediate-term bonds for long-term investors  

Markets may be noisier and more policy-driven in 2026—but discipline, diversification, and patience remain the most reliable tools investors have. This episode helps cut through the noise and focus on what actually matters.

Check out LPL Research's Outlook: CLICK HERE

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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial professional prior to investing. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

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